Optimizer V1 ranked contracts with a number that meant something only in comparison. FTO-1 gives you a real probability. 34% means 34%.
It picks better.
Across 75,000 real optimizations, FTO-1 found the winning contract 12% more often than Optimizer V1.
It got better where it was hardest.
In fast, volatile markets, the conditions that used to break ranking, FTO-1 improved the most: 25% better than Optimizer V1.
It learned from every trade we've ever recommended.
Nearly two million of them, each one replayed day by day against what the market actually did. Not just how they ended. When they peaked, when they turned, what waiting cost.
It knows what it doesn't know.
FTO-1's confidence is calibrated. When it's unsure, it says so, instead of pretending.
What you can do now
Know the odds before you commit.
Every recommendation carries a probability. No more guessing whether a 92 score is good.
See what your trades actually did.
Your Scorecard grades every past recommendation: what it did, when it peaked, what holding cost you.
Find out how you trade.
Because every trade is graded, your Scorecard can tell you when your positions typically top out, which market conditions suit you, and what you're leaving on the table.
Know when to sit out.
Some conditions don't have a good trade in them. FTO-1 can tell you that too.
Opportunity Insights
Everyrunnowexplainsitself.
When you run an optimization, FTO-1 doesn't just score the handful of contracts it shows you. It scores every contract available for that stock, often hundreds, and compares the two. A note at the top of your results tells you what it found.
If one of your settings is in the way, it says which one.
Sometimes the strongest contract out there costs more than your limit, or expires outside the timeframe you chose. When that happens, the note says so in plain words, and one tap re-runs the same optimization with that setting changed.
And when there's simply nothing good out there, it says that too.
Some days no contract on a stock is worth taking. FTO-1 tells you the whole board is weak instead of dressing up a weak pick, so sitting out is a decision, not a guess.
How it performs
Measured on a temporal holdout: 325,463 candidate outcomes across 75,417 jobs from dates the model had never seen, starting 2026-04-13. Not live trading, and excluding transaction costs, slippage and portfolio effects.
27 in 100
times it finds the winner
The strongest legacy ranker found it 24.28 times in 100. FTO-1 finds it 27.16 — a lift of 2.87 percentage points.
2 points
is how close its odds run
Calibration error is 0.0229 (ECE, 15 bins), so when FTO-1 says 30%, the rate it actually hits lands within about two points of that.
25%
better where it was hardest
In fast, volatile markets, the conditions that used to break ranking, it improved the most.
How often each model picked a contract that went on to win. Volatile markets, the conditions that used to break ranking, improved the most.
Optimizer-V1
FTO-1
35%
28%
21%
14%
7%
0%
Optimizer-V1, Falling markets: 28.5%
FTO-1, Falling markets: 31.2%
Optimizer-V1, Rising markets: 31.3%
FTO-1, Rising markets: 33.5%
Optimizer-V1, Volatile markets: 19.6%
FTO-1, Volatile markets: 24.6%
Optimizer-V1, Quiet markets: 15%
FTO-1, Quiet markets: 18%
Falling markets
Rising markets
Volatile markets
Quiet markets
Built on something that didn't exist before
1,967,822
graded option trades
Every recommendation the Optimizer has ever made, replayed against real market data, day by day. What it was worth on day one. Where it peaked. Whether it recovered. Which came first, the target or the stop. That record is the reason FTO-1 can tell you what a contract will probably do. And it grows every day.
What FTO-1 doesn't do
It doesn't predict direction.
It won't tell you whether a stock rises or falls.
It doesn't predict price.
No targets, no forecasts.
It answers one question:
Will this hit +100% before it drops 50%? Does this contract double before it halves?
Change the trade, change the odds.
The numbers assume you're taking profit at +100% and cutting at −50%. Different plan, different probability, and we always show you which one a number is based on.
Single options only.
FTO-1 scores one contract at a time. Debit and credit spreads are scored by FTO-1.5, which reads the whole position.
FTO-1 is live in the Optimizer for every user. Nothing to turn on.
Your Scorecard is already populated: every optimization you've run has been graded and is waiting for you.
The numbers, in full
Optimizer V1
FTO-1
Finds the winning contract
24 in 100
27 in 100
Gives a usable probability
No
Yes
Accurate within
Not measurable
2 points
Falling markets
28.5%
31.2%
Rising markets
31.3%
33.5%
Volatile markets
19.6%
24.6%
Quiet markets
15.0%
18.0%
Held-out figures from the 2026-08-11 evidence report. A target hit means take profit reached before stop loss or expiry under the stated policy — not a profitable-trade or portfolio-return measure.
