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FTO-1
The outcome model behind every probability
FTO-1.5
Chooses the exits before you buy · Beta
Understand the odds
before you trade
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Evidence
Track record
Predicted probability against realized outcome, published
How DeriveAI works
Search, discover, evaluate, decide, learn
Track record
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Search
Optimizer
Scorecard
Models
FTO-1
FTO-1.5
Evidence
Track record
How DeriveAI works
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FTO-1 is live in the Optimizer for every user.
See what changed
How DeriveAI works
One loop, five steps
Nothing here decides for you. Each step narrows uncertainty a little further and hands the result back.
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The loop
01
Search
Start with the question you actually have. Ask about a market, a contract, a strategy or a model’s output, in plain language.
Search
02
Discover
Optimizer narrows the field from every listed contract to a shortlist worth investigating — candidates, not instructions.
Optimizer
03
Evaluate
FTO reads one of those opportunities against a history of graded outcomes and returns the odds it associates with it.
FTO-1
04
Decide
You do this part. DeriveAI has given you a probability and its provenance; whether that justifies a position is your judgement and your risk.
05
Learn
Scorecard records what you chose and how it went, so the next decision is informed by the last few hundred.
Scorecard
You can check every step
The probabilities in step three are published against what actually happened. If the loop only worked in a marketing diagram, the track record would show it.
See the track record
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Optimizer
FTO-1
FTO-1.5
Scorecard
Evidence
Track record
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